Abstract
Forecasting on disease is really important to many parties especially the Ministry of Health to ensure that the people in Malaysia are in the satisfied level of health. Forecasting also can help the Ministry of Health and all the hospital in Malaysia to provide facilities for patient comfy and to prepare for the disease that infects the Malaysian in the future. This research is done in Kapit Hospital to analyze and forecast the increasing number of disease that infects the people around Kapit Division. For that, the project development that is based on the forecasting model with Box-Jenkins Method is hope to assist the process of analyze and forecast the disease based on data for five years that are from 1999 until 2003. Forecasting model with Box-Jenkins Method were developed using the STATISTICA version 5.5 software. In this research, five forecasting models were developing for each disease. This research is done to forecast the number of patient for one year ahead that infects by the five diseases. Overall, the result shows the increasement in the number of patient that will be infected by dengue, heart disease and diabetes mellitus, while the number of tubercle bacilli patient will be declined. The forecasting also shows that the number of the malaria patient will be in a random situation that is either increase or decline.
Website : http://ir.fsksm.utm.my/1488/
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