Abstract
The role of forecasting is important in an organization especially managing their activities. This research has been conducted to assist the Welfare department towards preventing juvenile issue as the department's role is to accommodate the rehabilitation centre for the juvenile. Consequently, this research is to forecast the number of the juvenile enrolled in rehabilitation centre such as Sekolah Tunas Bakti, (STB) that been approved to be one of the rehab centre to those teenager involved in juvenile crime. Developing a forecast for this research was based on monthly data record from each rehab centre in peninsular Malaysia, in January 2001 until December 2005. Technique or method has been used in this research was Neural Network. The research's output is a forecasting model that capable to forecast or estimate the number of juvenile detainee entering the STB for next 6 month. The research was developed by using Matlab 7 to obtain forecast values and develop interface of forecasting system. The models show some significant forecast results with quite high in accuracy. Besides that, the result for network training using traingdx training function was better than using traingd and traingdm training function. Forecasting result show that the entering of the juvenile didn't show an impressive change neither increase nor decrease.
Website : http://ir.fsksm.utm.my/1280/
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